Analysts explain why Nio’s June deliveries missed guidance

Nio Inc (NYSE: NIO) delivered slightly fewer vehicles in June than the company had guided, and Deutsche Bank analysts attributed the miss mainly to soft deliveries of the ES8 SUV (sport utility vehicle).

In a research note on Wednesday, Deutsche Bank analyst Wang Bin’s team said Nio delivered 40,597 vehicles in June, up 63% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month, but slightly below the company’s guidance range of 42,900 to 47,900 units.

Deliveries were uneven across brands. The main Nio brand delivered 21,908 units, up 9% from May; Onvo delivered 11,743 units, down 2%; and Firefly delivered 6,946 units, up 23%.

The team said the overall miss was mainly due to lower-than-expected ES8 deliveries in June, at around 8,900 units.

Some customers were waiting for the upcoming five-seat ES8, which arrived at showrooms and began pre-sales on June 28 and is likely priced below the six- and seven-seat versions, Deutsche Bank said.

Meanwhile, Nio Inc’s month-on-month delivery growth was driven largely by the first full month of deliveries for two new models: the Nio flagship SUV ES9, launched May 27, and the Onvo L80 SUV, launched May 15.

Deutsche Bank estimates ES9 deliveries likely reached about 8,000 units in June, a sharp increase from 3,108 units in May.

Nio announced on June 26 that cumulative ES9 deliveries had reached 10,000 units. The bank estimates the model has an order backlog of more than 40,000 non-cancellable orders.

New orders, however, declined from May. According to Thinkercar data, Nio Inc recorded roughly 28,000, 19,500, 14,500, and 11,600 new orders in the first, second, third, and fourth weeks of June, respectively.

Based on this, Deutsche Bank estimates Nio Inc’s full-month new orders in June fell 8% month-on-month to about 77,000 units.

The team said the sequential decline was mainly due to ES9 orders normalizing after their post-launch peak in May.

In addition, ES8 new orders likely declined in June for two reasons: the company phasing out its 10,000 yuan ($1,470) vehicle purchase tax subsidy promotion, and some customers waiting for the five-seat version expected to officially launch in early July.

When Nio announced its June delivery figures yesterday, it did not mention the ES8’s number as it had in the past. This suggests that deliveries of the model may not have exceeded 10,000 units last month, following seven consecutive months of surpassing that mark.

Despite the June miss, Deutsche Bank still expects Nio to reach non-GAAP break-even in the second quarter.

Nio Inc delivered 107,658 vehicles in the second quarter, up 49% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter.

The company has guided for vehicle gross margin to remain stable at 17% to 18%. Deutsche Bank deems this achievable given the strong contribution from the high-margin flagship ES9.

Nio’s management previously projected „other income“ gross margin at around 20% for both the second quarter and full-year 2026. Based on this, Deutsche Bank estimates Nio’s overall gross margin declined 1 percentage point quarter-on-quarter to 18% in the second quarter, and forecasts a non-GAAP net profit of 5 million yuan, essentially a break-even point.

Citing dealer visits, Deutsche Bank also noted there is no cannibalization between the ES9 and ES8, given the significant price gap between the two models.

The bank said the ES8 is positioned as a family vehicle, competing with models such as Li Auto’s (NASDAQ: LI) Li L8 and the Huawei-backed Aito M8, while the ES9 is marketed as a business executive vehicle appealing to business owners, competing with the Aito M9 and Zeekr 9X.

($1 = 6.7855 yuan)